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Not Updated since 30/7/2010 1/8/2010  



Welcome to
Aussiebulls.com
The Weekly Section

This section covers the weekly part of this website. For Daily Support please click on the “Daily” button above the top menu bar.

About This Site

This site analyzes all the securities listed in Aussie stock markets on weekly basis using end of day data. The job accomplished in the background is immense. Approximately one hour after the closing bell unchecked day's closing data is collected and a preliminary update is made for the convenience of our website users. The final update is made later after approximately 6 hours. Most of this time is used for dowloading of the final corrected data for all the stocks and for checking false and suspicious data. The filtered data is then once more analyzed by a very sophisticated algorithm and the final update is made. Though the signals are posted weekly, the weekly section is also updated on daily basis to monitor the accumulating last week’s candlestick and the intraweek confirmation status of the detected weekly candlestick patterns.

The job at the background is very complex but presentation of the results is simple and user friendly. There are six weekly trading signals posted. These are BUY-IF, BUY CONFIRMED, SELL-IF, SELL CONFIRMED, HOLD and WAIT. The signals are accompanied by weekly commentaries. A multiple factor weighting scheme assign stars to all the stocks ranging between zero and five. The average success of five star stocks is a very impressive 97.15%. Other important features of the site are intraweek confirmation status, portfolio tracking, stock scanning, and two-year signal history, all of which are explained below.

Most of this section of the site including the signals as well as the commentaries is open to public and free of charge. However, access to star ratings, portfolio tracking and stock scanning are membership privileges.

The Philosophy

The philosophy shaping the signal system stems from our experiences which extend into quite a few years. This is not a trend following system. It emphasizes the identification of reversal points and is able to generate significant profits even in sideways and bearish markets. The essential tool used for this purpose is the Japanese candlestick patterns. It is a well known fact that weekly patterns are more reliable and in fact much more meaningful from the perspective of the long term investors. The algorithm is able to recognize 91 different candlestick formations with high precision. It identifies relevant candlesticks applicable to each security on weekly basis, explains the patterns shortly and generates a brief candlestick commentary. Interested investors may visit our educational website www.candlesticker.com for thorough information about each pattern.

This site transforms the investor into a dynamic and vital element of the trading system in order to cope with the speed and volatility of the market. This is a feature unique only to this site. To accomplish this, pattern based bullish and bearish alerts are issued. Alerts can only be confirmed under certain pre-defined conditions. The task of the investor is to check the validity of these conditions in the next week and then go long or short only in case of confirmation. To give assistance to the investor in this regard, the weekly part is also daily updated and the intraweek confirmation status is posted everyday on the stock pages as well as the portfolio page. The Signals section explains this process in more detail.

There is no fundamental analysis in this site. You won’t find balance sheets, news, experts, comments and gossip here which are conducive to manipulation and wrong interpretation. The aim is to create a truly objective system with no human interference at all (including even us). The system prevents interference of human emotions with trading decisions.

The Signals

BUY-IF and SELL-IF are conditional pre-signals (alerts) that are generated on the basis of the candlestick patterns, using weekly patterns, and they are posted for the next week. Traders should consider the signals as confirmed and place their orders only if the market action in the next week proves that the alert generating pattern is confirmed.

There are three specific and well defined rules of confirmation for the pre-signals. Each of these confirmation rules is associated with pre-defined and definite price benchmarks. The confirmation rules and price benchmarks applicable in the next week are precisely explained in weekly commentaries. The investor is supposed to check if one of the three confirmation rules is satisfied or not by comparing the price activity of the confirmation week with the benchmarks. If the investor is convinced about the validity of the confirmation, he/she must place the orders without waiting the next week. The system frequently (in the absence of negating patterns) waits one more week, thus allowing a second chance of confirmation. If the pattern is still not confirmed, then the conditional signals should be taken as null and void and should be ignored. The intraweek confirmation status is posted daily and should be watched carefully, but the investor should keep in mind that the final confirmation will come at the end of the week.

BUY CONFIRMED and SELL CONFIRMED are post-signals confirming the conditional signals. They show that the pattern is confirmed. They are actually a warning and a last chance for traders to place their orders. If investors are unable to monitor the prices in the confirmation week, they may wait to see if the BUY-IF or SELL-IF alert has been transformed into a BUY CONFIRMED or SELL CONFIRMED or not, in the system. However doing so, investors may realize their trades at more disadvantageous prices.

HOLD comes after a BUY CONFIRMED and stays until the next confirmed SELL signal. It urges investors to keep their long positions as long as the HOLD tag stays.

WAIT comes after a SELL CONFIRMED and stays until the next confirmed BUY signal. Investors are urged to keep their cash positions as long as the WAIT tag stays.

The system monitors the performance of each signal after it is issued. The investors are notified by revised commentaries in case of slight signal failures. If signal errors reach to intolerable levels, commentaries are revised again to accommodate a special warning.

A transparent history of the confirmed signals is given for each stock and index. Wherever applicable, the history is given for the last two years. The success and failure of the signals are clearly shown with checks and cross signs. Moreover, investors can also see what has happened to a 100 invested two years ago in case of signal based trading. The buying and selling rates of history table are price benchmarks used for confirmation. Consequently, the signal history reflects the prices at which an investor acting on the basis of signals can genuinely buy or sell. The gains reported in the history table do not include potential short sale and interest gains.

Members Area

Our members enjoy certain privileges in return for a modest fee. These privileges are portfolio tracking, stock scanning, and access to the stock star ratings.

Members can create and track their own portfolios. When the portfolio button in the members’ weekly home page is clicked, an empty page opens. Adding a stock to portfolio is easy. It is sufficient to go to the page of any stock and click on the “Add to Portfolio” button. A click on the “Remove from Portfolio” button in the stock page deletes this stock from the portfolio. The week’s signal, previous signal, gain/loss since last signal, intraweek confirmation status (where required) and star rating is reported for each stock in the portfolio page.

Stars are assigned to all the stocks on the basis of a multiple factoring scheme according to percentage gain in the last two years, in the last three months, signal hit ratio, volume and beta value. Stocks below a certain score are not rated and get no stars. The highest rating is five stars. The average success is 44.86% for unrated stocks, 85.96% for rated stocks and 97.15% for five star stocks.

Stock Scanning is a very effective and convenient tool that enables the members to scan the stocks with respect to the market, currently posted signal, star rating and volume levels. Simply select a market and then select a weekly signal (e.g. BUY-IF). You can narrow the scope of your scan by selecting an appropriate star rating, e.g. only four and more (4+) stars, and volume (e.g. only stocks with a volume over 10 million). You will then instantly be provided with a list of all stocks satisfying your criteria (all the stocks in the selected market with a BUY-IF signal and with a volume over 10 million and that has been rated with four stars and above). Signals can be multi selected using the Ctrl key.

Using This Site

The home page is the introduction page. The daily button at the upper left corner must be used to go to the daily home page. There is a one to one correspondence between the weekly and daily pages. Two weekly samples (one long, one short), that are showing the most successful single weekly trades in the last two years history, are highlighted on this page. The member's home page however is enriched with a table that shows four recommended stocks from each stock exchange with BUY CONFIRMED, BUY-IF, SELL-IF and SELL CONFIRMED signals (from left to right respectively), on weekly basis.

Navigation through the site is by use of the menu buttons on the top menu bar. Stocks can be reached by "Search Stock". Each stock has one daily and one weekly page.

A stock page displays the weekly closing price, the weekly candlestick pattern, the signal, the intraweek confirmation status (where required), a small explanation about the interpretation of the pattern and the two year signal history of the stock. A detailed commentary explains what should be done in the past week and makes recommendations for the next week. A detailed weekly quote for the stock can be found at the bottom of the page.



Rules of Confirmation

There are three symmetric confirmation criteria for BUY-IF and SELL-IF alerts.

A BUY-IF signal is confirmed and turns into a BUY CONFIRMED signal by one of the following conditions,

The week opens with an upward gap (an opening price above the previous week’s close) signaling a bullish sentiment. The benchmark is the opening price. A confirmation is valid if the week’s prices stay over this benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a weekly white candlestick with an upward gap.

The week opens at a level either equal to or below the previous week’s close. The benchmark is the closing price of the previous week. A confirmation is valid if the week’s prices stay over this benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a white weekly candlestick closing above the previous close.

The week opens with a big downward gap (an opening price way below the previous week’s close) suggesting a very bearish week in this rarely observed case. However, the prices turn up and the week ends with a long white weekly candlestick but still closing below the previous week’s close. The benchmark is the closing price of the long white candlestick. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a long white weekly candlestick closing below the previous week’s close.

If one of these conditions is not satisfied, the BUY-IF alert remains valid without confirmation and three confirmation criteria are sought in the following week. The only exception is a long black weekly candlestick which makes the signal void and invalid automatically without further search. If there is still no confirmation in the following week, the alerts turn to be void and invalid regardless of the following week’s pattern and the search is terminated.

On the other hand, a SELL-IF signal is confirmed and turns into a SELL CONFIRMED signal by one of the following conditions,

The week opens with a downward gap (an opening price below the previous week’s close) signaling a bearish sentiment. The benchmark is the opening price. A confirmation is valid if the week’s prices stay below the benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a black weekly candlestick with a downward gap.

The week opens at a level, equal to or above the previous week’s close. The benchmark is the closing price of the previous week. A confirmation is valid if the week’s prices stay below the benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a black weekly candlestick closing below the previous week’s close.

The week opens with a big upward gap suggesting a very bullish week in this rarely observed case. However, the prices turn down and the week ends with a long black weekly candlestick still closing above the previous week’s close. The benchmark is the closing price of the long black candlestick. The pattern of this confirmation is a long black weekly candlestick closing above the previous week’s close.

If one of these conditions is not satisfied, the SELL-IF alert remains valid without confirmation and three confirmation criteria are sought in the following week. The only exception is a long white weekly candlestick which makes the signal void and invalid automatically without further search. If there is still no confirmation in the following week, the alerts turn to be void and invalid regardless of the following week’s pattern and the search is terminated.

Stock Search

The search box is a very effective tool. It allows you to directly reach to the weekly page of any one of the stocks simply by typing the ticker or company name in the search box and then by clicking on the GO button.

  Disclaimer  
 

The opinions provided herein are intended to inform. They come with no warranty of any kind. If you should choose to interpret Aussiebulls.com information as investment advice, you do so at your own risk. Investing can be a very dangerous venture and it is you who must assume the entire cost and risk involved in all of your investment decisions, should you choose to follow this advice or use this information. Aussiebulls.com staff, members of the staff's families, and/or entities with which they are affiliated, may from time to time, buy, sell or hold stock in and have other financial dealings with the companies that appear on the Aussiebulls.com web site, mailings, or publications. The information contained on the Aussiebulls.com web site, mailings, and publications is drawn from sources believed to be factual and reliable, but in no way does Aussiebulls.com represent or guarantee the accuracy or completeness thereof, nor in providing it, does Aussiebulls.com assume any liability. This information is given as of the date appearing on the Aussiebulls.com web site report or mailing, and Aussiebulls.com assumes no obligation to update the information or advice on further developments relating to any named securities. The information found on the Aussiebulls.com website, mailings, or publications is protected by the copyright laws of the United States and may not be copied, or reproduced in any way without the expressed, written consent of the editors.